The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is in existential crisis. It is not so much because of external threats, although there are definitely such threats all the time, but because of an implosion from within. It is unfortunately the perennial story of great powers or civilisations decaying or withering out due to internal conflict, political dogma, economic decline or social instability. It is no different in the case of the United Kingdom.
It is a historical fact that Great Britain used to rule the waves of the seven seas, the sun would never set in British Empire – from New Zealand at the south-east corner of the Earth through Australia, Malaysia, India, Middle-East, the large swathes of Africa and South America to Canada and beyond. The Empire was truly mind-bogglingly vast. Historians and political analysts were musing how a small country like Great Britain could colonise and control an Empire more than 100 times larger in size and more than 50 times bigger in population? But it did and probably that was how it acquired the lofty title of ‘Great Britain’.
There was a time at the early part of the 20th century when a country or even a collection of countries could hardly contemplate going against the wishes of Great Britain and if they did, they would have to prepare for all eventualities. The regional conflict that started in the Balkans in the year 1914 somehow dragged Britain into it and escalated regional war into World War I. The Allied Powers comprising Britain and its colonies, France, Russia, Italy fought tooth and nail against the Central powers of Germany, Austro-Hungarian Empire and Ottoman Empire. But Allied victory was only sealed when America eventually put its weight behind the Allied forces. That was the beginning of the end of the myth of British Empire’s invincibility in military might and America started taking full advantage of it.
The World War II which started only 20 years after the end of WW I by Germany due to its grievances of blatant unfair treatment in the peace treaty of WW I could be regarded as the nail in the coffin of the British Empire. America after staying neutral for a couple of years of this war and selling arms and ammunition to both the sides at vast profits joined the war when Japan bombed Pearl Harbour in Hawaii. Although eventually the Allied Forces did win the war, the vulnerability of the British Empire was exposed again and America, taking the high moral ground, pressed Britain to dismantle the Empire – the colonies must be set free and given independence. Within two years India, the jewel in the crown of the British Empire, as well as New Zealand got independence and within the next decade or so, large parts of Africa also got independence. Without the colonies, Britain is no more than a hollow shell. The sources that nourished the Empire had disappeared leaving only sore memory and wild dreams of revival.
However, Britain did manage to adjust itself and survive in the post-colonial era by pragmatic politicians. The statesmen like Sir Winston Churchill, Harold Macmillan, Edward Heath, Harold Wilson and so forth did realise that Britain can only survive in the modern era by joining together with European countries in the Common Market and its follow up European Union (EU).
While this development in the overall survival strategy was going on, there was an under-current of die-hard nationalism among the Conservatives that was driving them to resuscitate the second era of British Imperialism. For years these dreamers viewed Europe vas an impediment to British greatness. When in 2016, the then Tory prime minister David Cameron conceded to have a referendum on whether Britain should stay in or out of Europe, the Tory right-wing xenophobic elements came out in strength with the slogan “Take back control”. The implication was that taking back control from Brussels would help Britain restart a second era of British Imperialism!
Boris Johnson, the present Tory prime minister, most egregiously run a battle bus in the 2016 referendum campaign with the depiction, “We send the EU £350 million a week, let’s fund our NHS instead, Vote Leave”. Such mendacious claims abounded in the referendum. Liam Fox, a Tory leader and an ardent Brexiteer, claimed, “The free trade agreement that we will have to do with the European Union should be one of the easiest in human history.” Michael Gove, another Tory Brexiteer, when faced with predictions of adverse economic consequences of exit from the EU produced by the economic experts of the Bank of England, IMF, OECD and so forth, thundered, “The experts were wrong before and they are wrong again now.” Such imbeciles proliferated the Tory leadership then (and now) and persuaded the common people to vote “No” to Europe in the referendum.
Now in the forthcoming national election on 12 December 2019 the Tories, who had been peddling lies and deceits, are clearly in the lead and may win the election. Their aim, as repeated umpteen times by their leader Boris Johnson, is to “get Brexit done”. What it means nobody can fathom. If it means getting out of the EU with or without a deal, then that would be the biggest act of self-harm by any nation in the modern history.
Let us look realistically the consequence of Britain leaving the EU. First of all, this act of withdrawal will put tremendous pressure on the Good-Friday agreement of Northern Ireland. If the fragile peace treaty breaks down, and there are signs it will, the old days of sectarian violence in Northern Ireland and the violence spilling over the mainland Britain will return. Death and destruction will become everyday affair! Only way that can possibly be stopped is by allowing Northern Ireland to be subsumed by the Republic of Ireland.
Scotland under the leadership of the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) is making no bones about their aspiration to go independent of the United Kingdom (effectively England) and join the EU. They have a valid point. As the Scottish Kingdom, they had voted to remain in the EU (56% overall) and their view was completely disregarded by the so-called ‘will of the people’ (people of England’s deprived and dysfunctional areas). Plaid Cymru of Wales is also going the same way as the SNP. The demise of this country and the civilisation it enshrined over the centuries will be utterly diminished by the misguided delusional imperialist bigots dreaming of another colonial era of the past centuries.
If Scotland, in the near future and Wales somewhat later, manage to secede, the name the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will be nothing but totally hollow, only suitable for a place in the history book.
It is not for nothing that John Major, ex-Tory prime minister, had been pleading ardently with the voters to vote for a Remain party like Lib Dems or ‘Remainers’ in other parties, not Boris Johnson, the arch delusional Brexiteer and his party which happens to be the Tory party now. Similar messages had been put forward by Tony Blair, another ex-prime minister of the Labour party as well as from Michael Haseltine, ex-deputy prime minister from Tory party. These leaders from yester-years of the main political parties have national interests at their hearts, unlike the present misogynist, racist political opportunist prime minister of the Tory party. Can these past leaders along with the sensible pragmatic voters of today save the United Kingdom against the xenophobic delusional imperialist tide led by the incumbent prime minister?
(Updated on 15 December 2019: (The national election on 12 December 2019 produced overwhelming majority – 80 seat majority – for the Tory party of Boris Johnson! It only shows that Boris Johnson can now do whatever he likes with regard to his Brexit agenda and Scotland and Northern Ireland may be in direct conflict with British government. The future of Great Britain is truly bleak.)
– Dr A Rahman is an author and a columnist