Bangladesh, Disasters - natural and man-made, Economic, Environmental, International, Life as it is, Political

Abnormal of the past becomes normal of the future in climate change age

Sandbag embankment in Khulna, Bangladesh after the cyclone, Fani in 2019

For millions of years, we were in equilibrium with our environment. Over the past 11,500 years, a period in Earth’s history called the Holocene Epoch, there had been a global climatic stability with the average surface temperature fluctuating around one degree Celsius up or down. Our civilisation emerged and progressed against this backdrop of a relatively stable climate.

Melting glaciers

But then something happened that led to the change of whole edifice for worse. The Industrial Revolution that began around 1760 had drastically changed, indeed corrupted, our environment. Today, we live on a planet whose air is polluted, whose water is contaminated and whose soil is chemically altered. Indeed, human influence is so substantial that Earth is no longer in the Holocene Epoch, but rather in a new geologic epoch, the Anthropocene. For comparison, the epoch before Holocene, the Pleistocene Epoch, lasted nearly 2.5 million years.

Our insatiable appetite for energy using fossil fuel to have higher and higher living standards is placing unbearable burden on the planet. Until 1970s there had been little or no concern about the detrimental effects of extraction and use of fossil fuels on an industrial scale, particularly the amount of greenhouse gases that are released into the atmosphere.  The current concentration of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, is about 415 parts per million. It is the highest concentration since the Pliocene Epoch, which extended from about 5.3 million to 2.5 million years ago.

We now live in a world where “abnormal” of yester-years have become “normal” of present day. Examples of present day normal that were abnormal some 50 years ago are Bombogenesis, Arctic Amplification, Hell Fire, Pyro-cumulonimbus Storms aka Fire Tornadoes, Heat Waves and Climate Refugees, Derecho, Sneaker Wave, Squall Line, Microburst, Frankenstorm, and so forth.

Under normal conditions, cold air mass sits above the poles in an area called the polar vortex. It is a large, low-pressure zone that exists at two levels of the atmosphere, one in the troposphere, where most of the weather-related phenomena occur, and the other a bit higher up, in the stratosphere, home of the ozone layer that protects us from the harmful effects of ultraviolet radiation. The vortices are seasonal atmospheric phenomena.

However, scientists believe that the phenomenon of Arctic Amplification, which is the self-reinforcing process that warms the Arctic and subarctic regions much faster than rest of the world, distorts the vortex in the North Pole, thereby resulting in a sudden plunge in temperature south of the Arctic Circle. This anomaly, a consequence of global warming, was abnormal before the 1970s, but quite normal today.

It is no longer implausible to have record snowfall and record high temperature on the same day. On November 16 of last year, Anchorage in Alaska saw its high temperature top out at plus seven degrees at 2:30 a.m. (Average November temperature in Anchorage is negative five degrees.) Before midnight that day, 21 centimetres of snow fell on the ground. This oddity, as well as 20-25 degrees swing in daytime temperature within 24 hours in the winter months—abnormal few decades ago—are normal now.

Located a few feet below the soil surface in extremely cold regions, permafrost is one of the most unique kinds of soil containing more carbon and methane than any other soil on Earth and twice as much carbon as is available in the atmosphere. But as global temperatures rise, Arctic permafrost thaws and greenhouse gases trapped in ice are released. Clearly, permafrost thawing is opening up additional pathways for greenhouse gases, constituting a newly identified, powerful feedback to global warming. Besides, ancient carcasses are emerging from the melting permafrost, and with them germs from illness long thought eradicated.

Nowadays, Australia and California are ground zero for out-of-control wildfires. As cataclysmic wildfires continue to rage across Australia, the loss of life—humans and animals—has reached staggering numbers. An estimated one billion animals have been killed so far and approximately 107,000 square kilometres—roughly 70 percent the size of Bangladesh—burned on the east coast.

Climate change is making heat waves longer and more frequent. Temperatures soaring over 50 degrees in many parts of the world are becoming the norm, while nice and comfortable weather has become the exception.

Some other wild weather phenomena due to climate change that were rare or considered abnormal in the past but not anymore are Derecho—a straight-line wind storm with hurricane-force winds; Sneaker Wave—a disproportionately large wave that suddenly appears during a wave sequence; Squall Line—a line of thunderstorms preceding a cold front; Microburst—severe downdraft caused by a thunderstorm; Frankenstorm—remnants of a super storm reinvigorated by an early winter storm and a blast of Arctic air.

Rising temperatures due to climate change is driving out oxygen from our oceans, threatening many species of aquatic life. According to the International Union of Conservation of Nature, around 700 ocean sites are now suffering from low oxygen, compared with 45 in the 1960s. Lest we forget, oceans are the source of most of the oxygen we breathe.

If the seas ever do rise by even a meter, our children and grandchildren may find themselves living cramped lives with other climate refugees on shrinking continents. “Humorously speaking,” they may even try to adopt the underwater lifestyle of the cartoon character SpongeBob SquarePants, provided ocean acidification caused by absorption of carbon dioxide has not already wiped him and his pineapple home from the bottom of the rising seas.

Few years ago, the sight of polar bears roaming the streets of a village or town would have been abnormal. Nowadays, it is normal because the land on which they live and hunt is under siege. As Arctic ice thins from melting, an occurrence linked to global warming, their habitat is shrinking and food supply is decreasing. As a result, they are moving out of their natural habitat and traveling hundreds of miles south of the Arctic region in search for food.

To tackle these and other new normals, every year since 1995, our leaders and/or their disciples have been meeting at various world capitals or cities, some of which are tourist hot spots―Bali, Cancun, Marrakech, Montreal, Paris―debating climate change in climate-controlled halls at the so-called Conference of Parties (COP). In order to feel what it is like living in one of the hottest places on Earth, maybe they should hold a future COP in halls without air conditioners in Jacobabad (Pakistan) during July when the average daytime temperature regularly surpasses 50 degrees.

The hype around these conferences is high, but expectations of the people are low because the proposals are not bold enough and interests of the developing countries are marginalised. Gone is the focus on establishing global “top down” approach for stabilising emissions of greenhouse gases that would be legally binding. On the contrary, focus is on voluntary “bottom up” commitments by individual nations to reduce emissions.

It has become clear that the much-touted Paris Agreement thrashed out at COP-21 for keeping the rise in global temperature this century to two degrees above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even lower to 1.5 degrees is on life-support system. America under Donald Trump has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement as Donald Trump categorises global warming as “fake news!” Subsequent summits, including COP-25 in Madrid two months ago, were stuck in a rut. There is no agreement yet and none is in sight.

The UN Secretary-General António Guterres roped in some world leaders, members of civil societies and corporate executives at a climate summit in New York on September 23, 2019 to highlight their plans to bring down greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. As expected, they “prioritised” a laundry list of Action Portfolios without any firm commitment to implement them.

The star of the summit was Greta Thunberg, the 17-year old Swedish activist, who delivered a blunt speech, excoriating world leaders for their inaction. And the shameless world leaders clapped and cheered every time she chastised them with phrases like “How dare you,” or “You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words.” If they had any self-respect, they should have hung their head down in shame instead of applauding. They did not do so because they are “normal” 21st century leaders.

All said and done, what is the end game? Can pre-emptively embarking on a revolutionary change that will lead us away from dependency on fossil fuels and embracing eco-friendly renewable energies save our planet? Can we avoid the risk of a catastrophic failure of our increasingly ephemeral and tightly interlinked global civilisation as we know it? The answer to the above questions is NO, because our leaders lack the collective will to take the decisive steps required to keep our planet liveable for the future generations.

Scientists believe that if we started to cut down on emissions of carbon dioxide even by one percent in 1990, tackling climate change would have been manageable. Instead, we wasted 30 years by inaction. The inertia of the climate system is such that even if we stop introducing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere right now, the ones already in the atmosphere will keep on warming the Earth for another one to two hundred years before equilibrium is reached. In other words, climate change would keep on accelerating, regardless of what measures we take to mitigate its effects.

We can, however, partially solve the seemingly unsolvable problems we have created by changing the unsustainable lifestyle of many of us. More importantly, we have to work to address the problem of the world’s ever-growing population. We are probably within a few decades of a point in time where the sheer number of people on Earth will make continuing degradation of our planet irreversible. So, it is up to us whether we choose to take actions in a direction which will reduce overall global population.

Quamrul Haider is a Professor of Physics at Fordham University, New York.

Bangladesh, Human Rights, International, Life as it is, Political, Religious

Is India going to lose its soul?

As the new Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) risks defining Muslims as ‘infiltrators’, Tushar Arun Gandhi, Mahatma Gandhi’s great-grandson, joins the protest to save India’s heart and soul.

Protest against the CAA after Friday prayers outside the Jama Masjid in New Delhi

Last week 25,000 protesters gathered in Mewat, in the Indian state of Haryana, to begin the historic five-mile walk to Ghasera village. It was here, 72 years ago, that Mahatma Gandhi made the same journey during the turmoil of partition, visiting the area with the promise of a dignified life for local Muslims.

While millions have retraced Gandhi’s steps before, this time felt different. Against the backdrop of a new Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) passed by the Indian parliament last week, which many believe is openly discriminatory against Muslims and relegates them to second-class citizens, honouring Gandhi’s words of religious harmony and reconciliation felt like a powerful political statement. “Mewat has witnessed many protests, but this is the biggest in our life,” resident Shahzad Khan told local media.

As India has seen some of the biggest protests in four decades, the image and legacy of Gandhi, known as the “father of India” for his role in independence, has been omnipresent. Across India people have voiced fears that the new act, passed by prime minister Narendra Modi’s right wing, Hindu nationalist, Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) government, risks destroying the secular, pluralistic India that Gandhi dedicated his life to building.

It was no accident that on the same day that protesters marched in Mewat last week, thousands of demonstrators gathered at August Kranti Maidan in Mumbai, the spot from which Gandhi gave his famous “Quit India” speech to the British government in 1942.

Among the millions who have taken to the streets defending Gandhi’s inclusive vision of India has been Gandhi’s great-grandson, Tushar Arun Gandhi. “For the first time in independent India,” said Tushar Gandhi, “laws or systems are being attempted to be imposed which discriminate, which differentiate, on the basis of religion.”

Tushar Gandhi has dedicated much of his life to his great-grandfather’s legacy, establishing and running the Mahatma Gandhi Foundation in Mumbai, but he said with the passing of the new citizenship law something had shifted. “Everybody has a turning point in their life. If being thrown out of the train was a turning point in my great-grandfather’s life, I think this issue of trying to change the soul of my nation is the turning point in my life,” he said. In 10 years, he added, this country “won’t be India any more. It will be a fascist dictatorship. And, mind you, it will be a dictatorship using democratic process, and that is even more dangerous”.

Under the new legislation all Hindu, Christian, Jain, Buddhist and Sikh migrants who arrived from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan before 2014 will be allowed to claim Indian citizenship.

However, the same will not apply for Muslim immigrants. In conjunction with a planned initiative by the BJP government to begin a national register of citizens (NRC), where every person in India will have to present paperwork to prove their Indian lineage, the new act means that it is only Muslims in India who face the possibility of being defined as “infiltrators”, to either be deported or put into detention centres being built across the country.

Tushar spoke of his pride at seeing Gandhi’s image being brandished as thousands of protesters defied the bans on public gatherings by the authorities and turned out on to the streets in a wave of peaceful mass civil disobedience reminiscent of Gandhi’s movement 90 years ago.

“Just think of the far-sightedness of that man in 1930,” said Tushar. “When he was asked to send out a message to mankind, he wrote, ‘I want world sympathy in this battle of right against might,’ and today we are again fighting a battle of right against might, so it’s very natural that he becomes the icon of the protest.”

He was also adamant that the effects of the citizenship act would be felt far beyond India’s borders.

“There should be a debate on the ramifications of [the CAA] internationally,” says Tushar. “It concerns every democracy and it concerns everybody who believes in inclusivity and in the liberal ideology.”

While Modi has often described himself as a follower of Gandhi, Tushar said that this was meaningless in the face of the Hindu nationalist agenda being pushed by Modi’s BJP government, which aims to irreparably fracture the country down religious lines. “It’s not what you profess, but what you practise that makes the world realise who you follow,” he said of Modi.

Over a week since the passing of the citizenship act, the protests in India have showed no sign of abating and indeed have gathered even more momentum over the weekend. Like so many, Tushar Gandhi said he would keep turning out on the streets to fight for an India where religion did not determine your status as a citizen.

“We will have to keep up the momentum, we will actually have to increase the intensity of the protests if we are to bring this government to its knees,” he said. “Because you must remember this is an arrogant government. It is not going to come to its knees that easily.”

While the authorities are increasingly meeting the protests with suppression and violence, with the death toll from the demonstrations reaching 17 by Saturday, Tushar said it was more important than ever that Gandhi’s legacy remain at the heart of the protests.

“A long-drawn-out agitation can only be sustained if it is peaceful and non-violent,” he said.

This article by Zoe Osborne and Hannah Ellis-Petersen was first published in The Observer on 19 December 2019.

Bangladesh, Cultural, Economic, International, Life as it is, Literary, Political, Religious

Cultural and National Identity

Most of us have differed often enough with one another on what precisely constitutes culture. That is hardly surprising in view of the fact that it is common for even erudite philosophers to disagree and debate with each other on the raw definition and nuances of culture. The way we perceive culture is very much a mirror of our philosophy in life and of our view of the society we live in. It is but natural that we differ. But does it really make any material difference to a society on what exactly a culture is or on what a particular cultural guru enforces the cultural attributes of a society at a particular point in time and space?

Culture is more like the free-flowing water in a river. It takes on the colour of the alluvium soil it flows over at any particular moment. Culture of a people is anything but static; it changes, it merges, it meanders, it evolves like the life on earth.

The so-called Calcutta Book Fair fiasco had prompted certain coteries of vested interest to make mountain out of a mole hill. At the forefront was the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which had donned the mantle of the keeper of Muslim Bengali culture. It had self-proclaimed the distinctiveness of Muslims to create a separate identity for Bangladeshi culture.

The party was founded by a freedom fighter who fought for the liberation of Bangladesh or Bangla nation. But the Kakul trained former Pakistani army officer who spoke Bangla with a distinct Urdu accent, due to his long stay in the western wing of Pakistan, ultimately took on the role of a Trojan Horse. When he assumed the charge of independent Bangladesh in the aftermath of a series of coup d’etats and assassinations (which many people claim may have been through his acquiescence), he took upon himself the task of rebuilding the nation in the model of “Pakistan.” Thereby, he failed to live up to his glorious deeds during the days of blood and thunder. The unholy coalition that he forged with the religious right had made him to rehabilitate those hated anti-Bangladeshi forces in the independent Bangladesh. It brought back the ghost of Pakistani oppression in Bangladesh.

The Bengalis in Pakistan had made sacrifices to found a modern state based on secular ideology. The Sufi tradition had deeply influenced the Islam in Bengal. Its tolerant ethos was a far cry from the religious intolerance of West Pakistan that would later spawn into Taliban movement.

The Bangladesh Liberation War was a struggle against the hard-line exclusivist tradition of West Pakistan that was trying to supplant the liberal tradition of the eastern wing and turn it effectively into a colony. Under the guidance of the Pakistani junta from the west, the Islamist parties made it their goal to eliminate religious minorities and to discard the secularist strands from the composite culture of Bangladesh. They cried “Islam is in danger.” to garner supporters for their invidious goals.

It was a national goal in certain quarters during the Pakistani era to erect a psychological barrier between West Bengal and East Bengal in the guise of championing the cause of Islam. There was a crack in that barrier for a brief period during 1971-75. But, after 1975, for the next two decades, that barrier was restructured and reinforced to mirror the prejudices and predilections of the past. The master architects of that barrier were the Pakistan trained officers of the Bangladesh army who continued to look back to the pre-liberation days towards Islamabad for political inspiration.

The balance of power in Bengal in the era of Permanent Settlement had indeed tilted disproportionately in favour of the Hindus. The 1947 partition did serve to restore the balance. But it can just as easily be argued that East Bengal got rid of the over-lordship of the local Hindu zamindars only to embrace the colonial shackles of West Pakistan. Furthermore, it was demanded by its new masters to sever all ties with “Hindu” West Bengal with which it shared many common cultural heritage and where at least a quarter of the population was Muslim.

The Bangabhumi of yore was today’s East Bengal. It had always been the core of Bengali language and culture. West Bengal was the Rarhbhumi which was part of Greater Bengal and had, till the coming of the British, looked up to East Bengal for cultural inspiration and sustenance. So, in a sense, Bengal’s cultural heritage had its root in East Bengal. The proponents of Bangladeshi nationalism had their own agenda. It was to erase West Bengal from the canvas of Greater Bengal with a view to turning Bangladesh into a puppet in the hands of Islamabad’s rulers, who would only be too happy to use Bangladesh as the cat’s paw to further their own interests.

Then there were those who had vested interests in declaring, “Hindus of West Bengal and Muslims of Bangladesh are two distinct peoples; they have absolutely nothing in common” Inevitably, proponents of this delinquent ideology ignore the cultural affinities of West and East Bengal to emphasise only on religious differences. That was the only way they could erect a barrier between the two Bengals. But even that was not easy because a quarter of West Bengal’s population was Muslim. Would the religious fanatics disown Poet Nazrul Islam because he was from West Bengal?

There are some differences between the inhabitants of the two Bengals. But it is not simple to cut off West Bengal from our cultural canvas on the basis of these differences. Religion, ethnicity, dialect, and regional characteristics, all play an important role in defining our cultural ethos. It is as disingenuous as it is dishonest to try to define it in terms of religion alone.

Consider the regional component, for example. The immigrants in Calcutta from East Bengal, from long before the 1947 partition, had indulged in their regional pride by cheering for the East Bengal team on Calcutta’s football fields. And to this day they continue to do so. It pleases them no end when East Bengal defeats Mohan Bagan. The Islamists in Bangladesh
will be hard put to explain this exultation in the football fields of Calcutta in terms of their mindset of seeing everything with religious lens.

Region-based differences indeed seems far more significant than religion-based ones. A Muslim Bengali from West Bengal is likely to feel more at home with a Hindu Bengali from West Bengal than with a Muslim Bengali from Bangladesh. The age old Ghati-Bangal issue has always transcended religion to give primacy to geography instead.The cultural tradition of the subcontinent kept apart the Hindu migrants from East Bengal to India from the Hindu natives of West Bengal. Even some half a century after the partition of India, Calcutta newspapers continue to conspicuously mention the ancestral roots of prospective brides and grooms in matrimonial columns. One may attribute that to the discriminatory practices of the natives or to the exclusivist practices of the immigrants. But the fact remains that ancestral district can come in the way of tying matrimonial bonds between the Hindu natives and the Hindu immigrants in West Bengal. In fact, even among the Hindu immigrants themselves, a Baidya from Jessore or Bikrampur might find it beneath his dignity to have matrimonial ties with a Baidya from Sylhet or Comilla!

Many a nation state in the world exhibits regional variations in dialect and culture. The regional dialect and the local customs give the nation a “salad bowl” cultural milieu. Thus, Bavarians in Germany have the image of hillbillies. After the reunification of Germany, the people from the former East Germany were often perceived by their newfound compatriots as third worlders! Belgium and Switzerland have people speaking different dialects and even entirely different languages.

In USA, the Mecca of multi-culturalism, people speak of the East Coast, the Mid West or of the deep South with very specific cultural connotations. Let me narrate a personal anecdote. I took a speech course in an American college. During a discussion session, one student was frank enough to admit to her cultural bias based on regional accent. She told the class that Jamal has a non-American accent which is okay with her. But if she hears somebody with a southern accent, she seems to struggle with the thought that the person is of inferior intellect!Most religionists in Bangladesh take a victimological stance to justify their prejudices. They blame the arrogance of the Hindus from West Bengal or of the Hindu zamindar of yore from his own East Bengal for their antagonism toward all Hindus. But if they were honest enough, they would have readily admitted that there could be just as much a tradition of arrogance among the Muslims of Bangladesh. For many years, educated Bengali Muslims inhabiting the central part to the north western part of Bangladesh were extremely reluctant to enter into matrimonial ties with people from Noakhali, Chittagong and Sylhet. Similarly, many
Chittagongians and Sylhetees never could harbour the thought of marrying “foreigners.” I know of people from Noakhali who feel ashamed to disclose their roots. Many of them feigned to be from Comilla or Chittagong to get accepted by the Dhaka-centric “Bhadrolok” culture.

I was still a school kid when my father got transferred to Chittagong. It was a big cultural shock for me. I was afraid that I would never master the Chittagonian dialect, which is significantly different from the standard Bengali language. To my relief, I finally learnt to not only understand the local dialect but even speak in it after a fashion. A few years later, my father was transferred to Sylhet where I stoically withstood the scorn of my classmates who called me a “Bangal.” Needless to say, it was a pejorative. It was then that I learnt that the Sylhetees considered themselves to be from Assam. They were telling me that they did not think I was worthy of being a friend because I was nothing better than a “Bangal.”

I am sure I will have far less of a cultural shock if I visit Nadia in West Bengal. If I visit the Calcutta metropolis, I may cross path with some Bengalis (Hindus and Muslims alike) who may turn out to be somewhat different. But I doubt they will find me as different as I was found by my Chittagongian and Sylheti classmates. But then I have to bear in mind an
important aspect of social anthropology – many a person I will befriend in this old city have had the advantage of a college education and of urban living for many more than a generation or two. So, there is bound to be some difference between them and those I had encountered in Chittagong and Sylhet who were of rural background and may have belonged to the first generation in the quest of college education.


Jamal Hasan writes from Washington DC. The original article was published on March 19, 1999 in NEWS FROM BANGLADESH in its Commentary Section.

Advanced science, Bangladesh, Environmental, International, Life as it is, Political, Technical

We are hurtling towards a disastrous Climate Change (Part II)

In Part I, it was shown unambiguously that human activities from the period of industrial revolution (1720 – 1800) had been the root cause for the rise of global temperature by over 1ºC due to emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. As industrial activities became more and more widespread, the greenhouse gas emission and its accumulation in atmosphere increased correspondingly and the global temperature went up even higher.

Climatologists, Geoscientists, Atmospheric Scientists and so forth had been warning the world leaders of signs of increase in global temperature over and above the natural increase right from the early 1970s. As time passed, their warning became louder and louder, but the leaders of industrialised countries deliberately ignored them or rejected their scientific evidence. United States of America is, in particular, the champion of such denial right from the beginning – presidents like Ronald Reagan, George H W Bush, George W Bush and recently Donald Trump are all rejectionists of man-made global climate change.

Despite incontrovertible scientific principle and evidence that increase in carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and other gases in atmosphere traps energy i.e. heat within earth’s atmosphere and thereby increase global temperature, the deniers reject all these arguments. Their short-sightedness and the damage they are inflicting on Earth are simply inexcusable.

The consequences of global increase in temperature are given below:

When air temperature increases, land surface temperature increases more than the sea temperature, as heat capacity of water is more than that of soil. What it means is that for the same amount of heat, water temperature will increase less (due to its high heat absorbing capacity) than that of soil. Similarly, when air temperature drops, land temperature drop would be more than sea temperature. Thus, sea temperature does not move up or down as much as the adjoining land mass temperature and that is why we get the moderating effect of sea.

This land-sea temperature differential is also the cause of rain, storm, snowfall etc. In the summer, land temperature increases substantially causing air to rise to high altitude and sea air being relatively cooler and heavier but laden with moisture moves towards land and gives rain. A higher temperature difference would give higher amount of rain, higher wind velocity (storm, tornado etc). Reciprocally, in the winter there would be severe snowfall, extreme cold spell etc. So, the climate change would exacerbate the nascent conditions.   

Melting of inland glaciers around the world, which would then be followed by Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets melting would cause sea-level to rise significantly. It is not only the extra volume of water from melting ice but also the thermal expansion of water due to rise in temperature that would cause sea-levels to rise and inundate large areas of land mass. It is estimated by the Inter-governmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that by the end of this century, the sea-level is likely to rise by at least 6ft (or even higher), if no remedial action is taken now i.e. if life continues as ‘business-as-usual’. But if action is taken urgently now to limit temperature rise to 1.50C, the sea-level rise may be contained within 3ft to 6ft.

Figure 1. Mangrove areas of Sundarbans in Bangladesh at present

In addition to that, worsening storm surge, frequent tropical storm and concentrated rainfall will affect large coastal areas and even inlands of a country, islands and low-lying areas. Bangladesh, a low-lying country, would be badly affected by sea-level rise. The average landmass there is only about 5ft above the sea level. Figure 1 shows the mangrove areas of Sundarbans in the southern part of the country at present and Figure 2 when sea level rises by the smallest estimated margin of about 3ft.  It can be seen that large areas have been inundated by the rising sea level. It is estimated that 1.3 billion people world-wide would be affected, which may require their permanent relocation or even mass migration.

Figure 2. Mangrove areas of Sundarbans in Bangladesh anticipated to be around 2050 AD.

It may be pointed out that sea-level rise does not just cause submersion of landmass, which might have been habitable area previously, but also damages arable land. Ingress of saline water precludes cultivation of crops, vegetation etc even in surrounding areas which are not inundated. 

Thawing permafrost speed up global warming, as permafrost is basically soil that stays below freezing (00C) for at least two years. Plants capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere by photosynthesis process and then this carbon is released when wood (in roots) decays in the soil or carbon is compressed in the natural process to form coal. In Arctic areas, wood decay or decomposition is very slow and hence these areas are regarded as carbon sink. However, decomposition increases as temperature increases causing enhanced carbon emission. The inventory of frozen carbon in permafrost is 1.5 trillion tons, which is nearly twice the amount of carbon in the atmosphere now!

Wildfires are caused due to global warming and these then contribute to further global warming. Wildfire thus has a positive (destructive) feedback effect. Trees and vegetation absorb CO2 and convert it to oxygen (O2), thus acting as sinks. Tropical forests in Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil and in other parts of the world play a vital role in carbon sequestration. However, wildfires effectively convert the sink of carbon straight into source of carbon! The forest fires that are razing in the Amazon rain forest now, which is regarded as the lungs of the planet Earth, are extremely damaging. These forest fires are not natural wildfires; these are deliberate man-made fires to clear forest areas for agricultural use (deforestation). Man is making the planet uninhabitable. 

The effect of all these changes is causing severe disruption to the climate. Where there were moderate rainfalls, now there are severe rainfalls causing flash flood, bursting of dams, landslides etc. In 2018, there were devastating floods in Japan, North Korea and India. In 2019, bridges in North Yorkshire, England collapsed when full month’s rain fell in just four hours.

While some parts of the world were having tremendous amount of rainfall in short spell of time, others were baking in heat waves. France’s capital Paris experienced this summer (June 2019) the highest temperature of 46ºC and India experienced 50ºC. Pakistan experienced a deadly heat wave where highest recorded temperature was 54ºC!

There were unprecedented wildfires in Greece and Australia. Wildfires in the forest area called Paradise in California are devastating and becoming a regular event. Northern Finland (in Arctic Circle) and Siberia were used to be considered so cold that wildfires were thought to be incredible, but not anymore. Last year as well as this year, wildfires in those areas devastated large land mass.

In the year 2017, hurricane Irna, a category 5 storm, was the most powerful Atlantic storm in a decade to strike the Caribbean and Southern US. In addition, hurricane Harvey in Texas and hurricane Maria in Dominican Republic wrought havoc. Monsoon floods in Bangladesh and mudslides in Sierra Leone are devastating natural disasters in 2017.

The frequency and severity of these natural disasters are breaking all previous records. A natural disaster, which only 10 or 15 years ago would have been considered once in 100 years event, is now happening once or twice a decade and if runaway conditions are allowed to continue, those events may become regular events!

Donald Trump not only denies man-made climate change but also encourages activities which cause climate change. He and his right-wing coterie of extremist Republicans in America hold and promote the view that climate change is due to natural phenomenon. There is an Institute in America, called the Heartland Institute (which Trump endorses and supports) which claims to be one of the world’s “leading free market think-tanks” and promotes “free market solutions to social, economic and environmental problems”. It disputes scientific observations and knowledge on climate change (as is usual with right-wing cliques to denigrate scientific knowledge), criticises climate mitigation activities and promotes use of fossil fuels. 

When confronted with increased severity and more frequent incidences of droughts, forest and bush fires, floods, storms, tropical cyclones, cold spells etc, these climate change deniers assert these are just natural phenomena; nothing to do with human activities. Their denial is either based on sheer ignorance or moral depravity.

Dr A Rahman is an author and a columnist

  

Bangladesh, Environmental, International, Life as it is, Political, Technical

We are hurtling towards a disastrous climate change (Part I)

The human race is staring at the disastrous climate change of their own making. The climate change clock is ticking remorselessly; it has gone past the 11th hour and, although not exactly on the 59th minute, but not too far from it. We pride ourselves to be civilised human beings, we claim unprecedented scientific and technical achievements; but we have failed to realise the damage we have inflicted and still are inflicting on our planet and our actions are anything but civilised. A large section of the human population under the guidance and influence of ‘civilised political leaders’ in many Western and Eastern countries is in complete denial of the climatic damage!

In order to appreciate how close are we to the tipping point of the irreversible climate change, we need to look at the factors that initiate climate change. The term ‘climate change’ embodies the totality of processes like global warming, sea levels rise, loss of polar ice caps, floods, fires, droughts and so forth. These processes do not take place for no reasons; there are deep rooted reasons for these effects.

The causes for these effects are multifarious. Causes range from emission of greenhouse gases from uncontrolled industrial activities, excessive exploitation of Earth’s resources, deforestation, rise in human population, demands for improved standards of living, increased air travel etc. All these factors contribute to climate change due to enhanced greenhouse gas emission. And the quantity that is primarily used to characterise climate change is the increase in global temperature.

The root cause of the increase in temperature is the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in Earth’s atmosphere. A sort of runaway situation has developed here. Increase in greenhouse gas leads to higher global temperature and higher global temperature leads to higher greenhouse gas. Unless decisive action is taken by human beings to arrest this situation, the human race is at peril. 

The legitimate question that arises here is that how can one assert this rise in global temperature leading to climate change is mainly due to human activities, when both natural processes and human activities do contribute to global temperature? That is a genuine question.  

The planet Earth had undergone over the millennia large climate swings. Scientists had looked into these variations in Earth’s climate over the past 650,000 years and found that there had been as many as seven ice ages during this period and in between ice ages there had been some warmer periods with increase in global temperatures. Modern human beings (Homo sapiens) had not yet evolved 650,000 years ago and so global temperatures could all be assigned to natural causes. There was no trend of temperature variation over this period.

When nearly 250,000 years ago, modern human beings emerged from the savannas in Africa, man started interacting with nature. But those primitive men had no way of exploiting the Earth; they were passive, subservient onlookers of nature.

Climatologists looked at the inter-glacial periods i.e. between two cold glacial spells and established a baseline temperature. After the baseline temperature was established, then any excess global temperature found over a period when human activity was known to have taken place can be assigned to human activities. This is an established scientific technique and it is applied to many scientific disciplines to separate out human activities from natural activities.

The planet Earth is blanketed by a layer of gases in the outer atmosphere. This atmosphere containing a variety of gases lets in solar radiation to come through, but blocks out or shields harmful ionising radiation from the outer skies. A small fraction of solar energy is reflected back from Earth’s surface to outer skies. Normally if the atmosphere is unpolluted, this reflected energy in the form of infrared radiation will escape to outer space. On the other hand, if there are pollutants such as carbon dioxide, methane etc, this radiation is held back and reflected towards Earth again. Thus, gradually excess energy is accumulated in the planet and its temperature goes up.

The types of gases that refuses to let infrared escape from Earth had been found to be carbon dioxide (CO2), methane gas (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and a few more. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide in ppm (parts per million) and methane gas in ppm over the period 1500 to the present time had been estimated by scientists and presented in the graphs below. The period 1720 to 1800 is the industrial revolution period when human activities kicked in large scale. Before this industrialisation period, humans were living in harmony with nature. It can be seen from both of these graphs that the industrial revolution was the spurt in increase in concentration which continued in accelerated fashion right up to the present day.

Greenhouse gas concentration from 1500 to 2000 AD
(Courtesy: http://www.theconversation.com)

Along with these two graphs, one should consider the rise in global temperature which is shown below. The similarity in the overall shape and pattern of these graphs is striking and one can draw conclusion that are correlated. It shows beyond doubt that the rise in temperature above the 1850 to 1900 (industrialisation period) baseline is due to increased concentration of global warming pollutants – CO2 and CH4. There are other significant pollutants such as chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), but it is not shown here.

The CO2 concentration in pre-industrialised period was between 200 to 270 ppm and Earth had a thermally stable period. But now this concentration has risen to about 350 ppm leading to about 1ºC rise in temperature. But, if the present trend continues, by the end of the coming decade the temperature may well go up more than 1.5ºC and that would bring in very harsh conditions for all forms of life on Earth.

Global average temperature and industrial baseline.
(Courtesy: http://www.theconversation.com)

From 1970s the scientists had been saying that human beings are damaging Earth’s atmosphere and its natural conditions and care should be taken to limit it or even reverse it. But political leaders of various persuasions, particularly Americans and vested interests dealing with fossil fuels, kept denying any global warming or any climate change etc. When confronted with increased severity and more frequent incidences of droughts, bush fires, floods, storms, tropical cyclones, cold spells etc, these climate deniers started saying that these are natural phenomena; nothing to do with human activities. Their denial is either based on ignorance or moral depravity.

Few countries holding such views are destroying the good work of large number of countries. Donald Trump, president of America, is the most famous deniers of all, mainly because America is the second largest polluter of the world and to limit polluting activities would cost America a lot. And hence denying the whole thing is the easy option. Pursuing such damaging policy, America, under Donald Trump, had withdrawn from the Paris Agreement in 2017.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 aims to limit global warming to 1.5ºC relative to a pre-industrial baseline. Its precise commitment is:

Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2℃ above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

We all live in the same planet. If one country i.e. America, the second largest polluter, keeps damaging the planet for its own benefit, that would wipe out the sacrifices of large number of countries. America is pushing the Earth to a precipice for their selfish interests.

(The next Part (Part II) will deal with the likely consequences of the present predicament and the most likely prediction of the future scenario.)

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  • Dr A Rahman is an author and a columnist