Disasters - natural and man-made, Economic, Environmental, International, Life as it is, Technical

Dissecting COVID-19 Mortality Rates

Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is inflicting unprecedented havoc all over the world not only on human lives but also on social, economic, educational and political spheres. The most devastating part is that as scientists, medical professionals, virologists, epidemiologists and so forth come up with a potential cure or preventive medicine, they find that the virus had subtly changed in the meantime such that the medicine is no longer as effective as it is meant to be. It is a sort of cat and mouse game between scientists and the nature, where scientists are pursuing the naturally evolving deadly virus with all its technical arsenals and the nature is changing the characteristics of the viruses to outwit scientists. So far, over the past five months or so, nature is having the upper hand!

Now, setting aside the biological aspects of this devastating virus, parallel work had been going on to find out who the victims were and what were the inherent characteristics of the victims. If these characteristics could be identified precisely, then from the traits of these characteristics adequate protective measures can be prescribed and the likelihood of future damages can be reduced.  

In order to do that, one needs to have sufficiently large database of victims spanning over a period of time covering variables such as races of the victims, genders, demographic distribution, socio-economic conditions, living standards and lifestyle choices, religious adherence etc. Underneath all these variables, there may be few dominant traits which cut across these variables to perpetrate this disease within the population. To filter out these traits, one needs to dissect the mortality figures attributable to various factors.

The overall findings of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) over the past three months or so in England and Wales concur with the statistics in other multicultural and multi-ethnicity countries that black and Asian people, collectively known as Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME), were at higher risk from the novel coronavirus. But within this overall group, there are sub-groups where the risks are widely distributed – the risks vary on economic grounds, on educational grounds, on professional grounds as well as on religious grounds. But in all of these sub-groups, risks of BAME are higher, sometimes significantly higher, than the corresponding white sub-groups’. However, this article concentrates on risks based on religious subgroup.    

What had been identified from the study of mortality rates over the past three months or so in England and Wales was that religions offer a significant factor in fatality figures. Of course, other factors associated with the religious factor such as communal gathering in private houses, distributing and sharing of food items on religious occasions etc may have played significant roles as underlying causes in increasing the fatality figures. Let us look at the overall statistical figures before going into the underlying causes.

The ONS analysis of the mortality figures in England and Wales from March 2 to May 15 show that Muslims, Jews, Hindus, Sikhs and Christians have mortality rates in that order with the Muslims being the highest. The lowest rate is among people who have no-religion. Although the religion of a deceased person is not required to be specified in the death certificate, the ONS had to coordinate the deceased person’s religious affiliation from the 2011 census data, which are the latest available figures. Table 1 shows the percentage distribution of population of various religious groups. It may be noted that study population distribution is somewhat different from the 2011 Census distribution, as some people in the Census may since have passed away or emigrated and hence not available in the study population.

Table 1: Religious groups as used by the ONS
Religious
group
2011 Census
percentage distribution
Study population
percentage distribution
No religion25.126.0
Christian59.358.6
Buddhist0.40.4
Hindu1.51.5
Jewish0.50.5
Muslim4.84.9
Sikh0.80.8
Other religion0.40.4
Not stated or required7.27.0

It had been found that the mortality rate among Muslim men was 98.9 deaths per 100,000 (of Muslim men) and 98.2 deaths per 100,000 for women. For those who said they had no religion in Britain’s 2011 census, the figure was 80.7 deaths per 100,000 males and 47.9 deaths per 100,000 females.

However, when the age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) involving COVID-19 were evaluated, the deaths among Muslim religious group became 198.9 deaths per 100,000 males and 98.2 deaths per 100,000 females, which were the highest rates. The corresponding figures among Christians were 92.6 males and 54.6 females. The lowest figures were among those with no religious affiliations; the corresponding figures were 80.7 males and 47.9 females. ASMR is a statistical measure to allow more precise comparisons between two or more populations by eliminating the effects in age structure by using a “standard population”, which is taken as the European Standard Population.

Table 2: Age-standardised mortality rates involving COVID-19 for those aged nine years and over by sex and religious group, England and Wales, 2 March to 15 May 2020
Age-standardised mortality rates involving COVID-19 
Religious groupMalesFemales 
No religion80.747.9 
Christian92.654.6 
Buddhist113.557.4 
Sikh128.669.4 
 Hindu154.893.3 
Jewish187.994.3 
Muslim198.998.2 
Other religion or not stated84.249.2 

The ONS report states that with ethnicity included, it demonstrates that a substantial part of the difference in mortality between religious groups is explained by the different circumstances in which members of these groups are known to live – for example, living in areas with higher levels of socio-economic deprivation and differences in ethnic makeup. The adherents of various religions have different levels of education and career pursuits and that may lead to different socio-economic strata.

Figure 1: Muslim, Sikh or Hindu had higher mortality rates compared to the Christian and no-religion populations

Age-standardised mortality rates of death involving COVID-19 for those aged 9 to 64 years by sex and religious group, England and Wales, 2 March to 15 May 2020. It may be pointed out that, for example, ASMR in Muslim males between 9 and 64 is about 47 per 100,000, whereas for the whole population of Muslim males, i.e. age 9 to 64 and 65+, the figure is 198.9 per 100,000. That shows that the mortality in the age group 65+ is 151.9 per 100,000! Thus, the 65+ Muslim group is over 3 times more vulnerable than the under 65 group in England and Wales!

It had also been found out that the highest mortality rate was among black men at 255.7 per 100,000 compared to a rate of 87 deaths per 100,000 white males. The death rate was 119.8 per 100,000 for black women and 52 per 100,000 for white women.

Thus, COVID-19 pandemic had identified the vulnerability of population as a whole and the various subgroups of population. From those sub-groups the underlying causes such as economic deprivation, lack of education, concentration of people in the community, lifestyles, social patterns, religious adherence and many other factors may be identified.  

  • Dr A Rahman is an author and a columnist.

Disasters - natural and man-made, Environmental, International, Technical

Building a sustainable society in the age of climate change

In an article published in this website May 15, 2020, I discussed the future of our planet within the context of frontier ethics. The main conclusion was that frontier ethics, which affects our attitudes about the seriousness of environmental problems, will eventually lead to massive resource depletion and ecological disasters, and accelerate the pernicious effects of climate change.

Those who believe in frontier ethics are least concerned about the declining fossil fuel reserves because they are convinced that reserves will never become dry. Their mantra—”Why be efficient if resources are unlimited”—prevents them from using available resources more efficiently. Instead, they maintain that we should increase the search for new reserves, even if it takes us into one of the few remaining pristine wilderness on our planet.

A classic example of someone who preaches and practices frontier ethics is Donald Trump. After becoming president of the United States of America, he signed an executive order opening up the entire coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to oil and gas exploration. Until then, it was an environmentally sensitive area long closed to drilling. Furthermore, he gave the coal industry in America a carté blanche to dig wherever there may be signs of coal. He also repealed former president Obama’s Clean Power Plan, giving states more flexibility to keep coal-fired power plants open.

Arguably, societies that believe in frontier ethics are low-synergy societies treading on a path of unsustainability. In contrast, high-synergy societies live in harmony with nature and they seek ways to enhance natural systems. Creating a high-synergy society that lives within the Earth’s means is possible if we adopt a set of sustainable ethics that ensures future generations and other species the resources they need to survive.

The tenets of sustainable ethics are: The Earth has a limited supply of resources, and they are not all for us; humans are a part of nature, subject to its laws; and success stems from efforts to cooperate with the forces of nature. Clearly, sustainable ethics recognises our place in the natural order as one of many millions of species and they favour cooperation over domination. Also, they are diametrically opposed to the tenets of frontier ethics. While frontier ethics leads to exploitive behaviour, sustainable ethics will lead to a less exploitive human presence that can endure for thousands of years.

In addition to the three tenets, there are at least six principles that lie at the core of sustainability. They are conservation, recycling, using renewable resources, restoration, population control and adaptability. Among other measures discussed below, if we follow these principles, we can create and maintain a well-functioning global ecosystem.

In order to build a sustainable society in which future generations and other species can survive and live well, we have to change our thinking process too—from linear to system thinking. Linear thinking sees events in a straight-line sequence, ignoring a complex web of interactions, while system thinking recognises how entire systems function. In the environmental arena, system thinking helps us to see how individual parts work together and how interdependent all life forms are. By becoming better system thinkers, we can learn to avoid impacts that threaten the health and wellbeing of the planet and its organisms.

Because system thinking encourages us to look at the whole, it will naturally force us to look at the root cause of problems, especially environmental ones. Additionally, it can help society to identify key leverage points as to where changes can be made. Moreover, system thinking will enhance our ability to see the big picture as well as connections between various parts that are essential to solving the many environmental problems, particularly those caused by climate change, and putting us on a sustainable path. Unfortunately, most of the world leaders are not system thinkers and therefore cannot guide us toward a sustainable society.

Building a sustainable society requires widespread participation with input from the rich and poor, conservative and liberal, young and old. In fact, sustainable solutions call for action from large and small businesses, individuals and governments. Individuals are important because each one of us is part of the problem. In other words, seemingly insignificant actions by us, albeit small, are responsible for many environmental problems we are facing today.

Achieving a sustainable world also requires massive cooperation between citizens and governments. Cooperation must occur on a much grander scale, with countries working together for the common good of their citizens and the planet. At the same time, we have to develop a unified strategy to fight the unique challenges posed by climate change.

But how do we achieve this cooperation and develop a unified strategy in an era when climate change is an impediment towards sustainable development? Since 1995, world governments have met every year at the so-called Conference of Parties to forge a global response to the climate change emergency. However, besides stating lofty goals, these dysfunctional conferences were either fractious or soporific. Interspersed with moments of rare triumph though, such as the Paris agreement in 2015, they mostly failed to deliver strong commitments to tackle the terror unleashed by climate change.

In the meantime, the impact of climate change on humans, animals and the environment are becoming increasingly unbearable. It is dragging millions of people into grinding poverty. That being the case, virtually no one any longer believes that these conferences will ever be able to tackle climate change, thereby allowing us to lead a sustainable life. If it sounds downbeat, that is because it is.

So how do we create a sustainable future? As noted by Einstein, “In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.” Indeed, from the current crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, we can observe some encouraging trends in our behaviour and lifestyle that have profound implications in the fight against climate change. If we can hold on to these trends in the post-pandemic world, we will be able to face the ongoing existential threat of climate change effectively and thus create a sustainable society.

Quamrul Haider is a Professor of Physics at Fordham University, New York.

Cultural, Economic, Environmental, Human Rights, International, Life as it is, Political

Donald Trump’s true colour

It is said that a man should be known not by the colour of his skin, but by the colour of his inner self. Donald Trump is no exception. Although his skin colour is white, but the colour of his inner self is absolutely dreadful – a dark vicious colour full of stinking rotting garbage discarded by civilised human beings over the centuries. His rotten mind or brain is the repository of all that is nasty and despicable that decent human beings had shamefully chucked out, but eagerly absorbed and assimilated by this white supremacist and his cabal.

One does not need to dig deep into the history to find out his colour, the short 10 minutes briefing that he gave on May 29, 2020 at the White House lawn would expose his true colour. Of course, one may bring out other associated issues that he gorged out previously to put the spectrum of his colour, but I will concentrate here on his recent briefing.

When the White House announced that the president would give a briefing on a wide range of topical issues, the American radio, television and newspaper journalists as well as major world media journalists were present at the venue. After more than 50 minutes delay (no apology offered), the president arrived at the podium surrounded by his secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, who stood in military attention next to him and a few other body guards surrounded him. It looked like a mafia godfather appearing in public with his security guards around him with fingers on the triggers.

The president concentrated exclusively on China bashing and dishing out lies and innuendoes on China. The gist of his speech was this: China produced this coronavirus (Covid-19) streak in Wuhan and then exported that to America and Europe (to draw Europe into his fold). To prove the credibility of his claim, he asked rhetorically why then there were no coronavirus cases in other cities and towns in China and only in America and Europe? He implied that infected Chinese people were then sent to America and Europe to spread the disease.

The idiocy of the argument is that how could China send their citizens (with coronavirus infection) without American connivance? Didn’t America give those supposedly infected Chinese nationals the visas after medical tests? With visa records for the months of January, February and March 2020, America could easily find out the individuals, the places they visited and how the virus had spread, rather than making imbecile and unsubstantiated claim of China’s export of this disease.

It may be mentioned that Mike Pompeo had been spreading this lie from the end of April that there was “a significant amount of evidence” that the coronavirus had emerged from a Chinese laboratory, but he never disclosed what that evidence was. The US intelligence agencies concluded and reported that it was not a man-made virus. A German spy agency (BND) casts doubt on the American accusation that the virus, COVID-19, originated in a Chinese laboratory. In fact, the German intelligence report prepared for the German Defence Minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, concluded that the U.S. accusations were a deliberate attempt to divert public attention away from President Donald Trump’s “own failures”. Prof. Tasuku Honjo, Japanese Nobel Laureate in 2018 in Medicine or Physiology, had categorically refuted the false claim that had been circulating in the social media that he said that “Covid-19 is man-made and not natural”. Honjo said, “In the wake of the pain, economic loss and unprecedented global suffering caused by Covid-19 pandemic, I am greatly saddened that my name and that of Tokyo University have been used to spread false accusations and mis-information”. The five nations’ joint spy agency representing US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand would not support Pompeo’s claim.

Even if we assume that China did produce the virus, couldn’t white Americans carry the virus back to America? There are hundreds, if not thousands, of white Americans working in Wuhan province on various collaborative projects or on outsourced American companies. Of course, there are hundreds of thousands of Chinese-origin Americans who may go back and forth between America and China. But they are Americans. The racist president Donald Trump may deny that and call them Chinese, but he is blatantly wrong. He asked a Chinese American reporter working for the CNN in America to ask the question ‘why so many Americans are dying now?’ to the Chinese government, which is blatantly a racist comment.

Donald Trump raised the issue of why there were no cases in China, apart from Wuhan. His knowledge base and information feedback are very poor. There were cases in Beijing and in other cities. But what China did immediately after the identification of the virus was to lockdown the whole city of Wuhan, a city of more than 10 million people, completely. The western press (including American’s) started saying that the measure was excessive and, in any case, it was only possible because China was an autocratic state; in a democratic state it would not be possible. However, China contained the virus, but in democratic America (!) with Donald Trump as the president, people are dying in droves.

Donald Trump did not take any measure to contain the virus from January until the middle of March, but was bragging that America was well prepared to tackle the virus. He was advising people in tweets that they should take it as flu. When people started dying in New York underground carriages from Covid-19, he blamed the NY Mayor for not taking measures in time!

This is the president who was blaming China for this virus, when his own country was in flames. Race riots were raging for four nights (against the killing of an unarmed Afro-American man by a white police officer) in Minneapolis and in all other big cities when he made that statement; but he said not a single word to address those aggrieved rioters. On the other hand, three days ago (6th day of unrest), he tweeted that ‘when the looting starts, the shooting begins’ and that inflamed the anger of the protesters even more. Now, the riot has spread to more than 70 cities and towns in America, curfew had been imposed and the National Guards had been called in to quell the race riots. The country is in flames, but the racist president wants to punish the Afro-Americans with the ‘severest weapon’. On last Friday night, the rioters came round the White House to show their anger, started burning cars and mayhem followed. The security police had to take the president to the underground bunker of the white house for his security. From the bunker, he possibly wanted to deploy Army in the streets of America! So far is his jingoism!

In matters of foreign policy, this president is an abject failure. He had torn up the nuclear deal with Iran that took years of patient and delicate negotiations between the 5+1 states (including America) and Iran. The deal was going through nicely to completion until this man came along and threw the whole thing into fire.

This man denies global warming and claims that climate change is a fictious thing.  He has withdrawn America from Paris Climate Agreement. In fact, immediately after becoming president he restarted the coal fired stations in America spewing millions of tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. He negated the efforts of scores of nations cutting down the greenhouse gas emission. He is in effect a saboteur and enemy of the people.

Only a few days ago, he terminated all associations with the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the egregious claim that WHO collaborated with China on the Covid-19 pandemic. Almost all the nations on earth wanted to go through the raging pandemic now and control it and then carryout an investigation on WHO activities, but this president would have none of it and throw the spanner into the ring.

Altogether, this is the man who is damaging not only the earth and humanity immeasurably, but also America itself inexorably. This man came to power with the banner proclaiming “America first, America first”. At the end of his term of presidency at the end of this year, America may well find itself to be the nation which had been most severely damaged economically, socially and politically more than any other nation by this man. This man is on record of brandishing Mexicans as “murderers and rapists” and calling Muslims the terrorists. All of these character traits show the true colour of this vile narcissistic racist xenophobic megalomaniac president.

–             Dr A Rahman is an author and a columnist.

Astrophysics, Disasters - natural and man-made, Economic, Environmental, International, Life as it is, Technical

Our frontier mentality and the Future of Earth

No one witnessed the birth of Earth. The Earth does not have a birth certificate to authenticate its age. But there is no doubt about Earth’s antiquity. It is 4.55 billion years old. In the context of the Universe which burst into existence 13.7 billion years ago, Earth is in its early middle age. It will live for another five billion years, when the Sun will become a Red Giant, swallowing the nearby planets and ending its luminous career by dwindling into a white dwarf.

Although Earth is very small—a mote of dust—in the vast cosmic arena, it is the only planet that is filled with exquisite beauty, a cornucopia of boisterous wildlife slithering, scampering, soaring and swimming all over the planet. It showcases timeless marvels—a panoply of wonders—sculpted by Nature over millions of years. It is home to towering mountains, alpine glaciers, lush green rainforests, subtropical wilderness and millennia-old humongous trees, gushing geysers, beautiful coral reefs, lofty waterfalls and pristine lakes. The Earth is also home to incredible sandstone arches, deep canyons, varicoloured petrified wood and multi-hued badlands, massive caves filled with imposing stalagmites and stalactites, sparsely vegetated and colourfully painted deserts, gigantic sand dunes, and hundreds of species of flora and fauna.

Evidence of life—bacteria and single-celled organisms—date to 3.85 billion years ago. Since then, life suffered wave after wave of cataclysmic extinctions. The dinosaurs are perhaps the most famous extinct creatures who roamed the Earth’s surface unchallenged during the Mesozoic Era. After surviving for nearly 165 million years, they became victims of the greatest mass deaths in the history of our planet 65 million years ago when a large asteroid hit the Earth.

About 25 million years ago, most of the present day species emerged. Now, fast forward to about two million years ago and we see the evolution of our ancestors—upright, biped, primate mammals. Evidence shows that modern humans originated in Africa within the past 200,000 years, yet there was no move toward high level civilisation. It was the Sumerians of Mesopotamia who developed the world’s first civilisation roughly 6,000 years ago.

We have had the planet to ourselves for a small fraction of time. During this short time interval, we outfoxed other species in the game of survival. Maybe they ran out of luck in evolution’s lottery, or perhaps sometime in the distant past, we became completely dissociated from the checks and balances between man and nature and became a super-predator.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution circa 1760, we made a toxic mess of our natural environment, resulting in an ever-hotter climate, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, widespread droughts, frequent and much wilder storms, crop failures and tens of millions of climate refugees. Our unrestrained use of fossil fuels for more than a century had been slowly pushing the planet toward climatological catastrophe.

Today, we are fixated on enjoying the present and refusing to account for the consequences of our actions on tomorrow. Social scientists interpret this type of behaviour as frontier ethic, prevalent in Western culture as well as others. This ethic embraces a rather narrow view of humans in the environment and even a narrower view of nature. It is characterised by three tenets.

The first is that the Earth has an infinite supply of resources for exclusive human use. There is always more and it is all for us; humans are apart from nature and immune to natural laws; and human success derives from the control of nature.

This tenet no doubt evolved in the prehistoric time when human numbers were small and the Earth’s resources did indeed appear inexhaustible. Not anymore. The massive increase in economic activity and the upsurge in population growth in the last 200 years have brought us face-to-face with the planet’s limitations.

The second tenet sought to position humankind outside the realm of nature. Many people still continue to view human beings as separate from nature and persist in thinking we can do whatever we please without harming the planet. To the contrary, our independence is an illusion, engendered by our remoteness from a world we see through rose-coloured glasses and thermo-paned windows.

As for the third tenet, industrialised nations view nature as a force that must be conquered and subjugated. Hence, we manipulated wildlife, fisheries, land, rivers, oceans and forests like so many pieces in a board game, until the environment reached a dangerous point of disequilibrium.

Over the years, the frontier ethic permeated our lives so much that we became more remote from the natural world outside our artificial environments. It influences our personal goals and expectations without thinking about the effects on the long-term health of the planet.

It cannot be overemphasised that the fate of the planet, our home, and the millions of species that share it with us, as well as the fate of all future generations, lies in our hands. Do we realise that because of resource and ozone depletion, global warming and other problems, the human species will be wiped off the face of the planet if we do not change our lifestyles? At the least, things will deteriorate to the extent that we could lose centuries of technological and economic progress in the next few decades. Our wonderfully diverse biological world, the product of billions of years of evolution, could be eradicated in a fraction of the Earth’s history.

So, what should we do to keep the planet habitable for our future generations? Scientists have urged world leaders in vain to combat global-warming emissions, which have only continued to soar upward. Should we instead rely on a pandemic, such as the coronavirus that is shutting down countries across the globe, slowing down economic activities, halting industrial productions and travel, thereby causing a significant decline in air pollution and carbon/nitrogen emissions all over the world?

The coronavirus pandemic is a tragedy—a palpable human nightmare unfolding in overloaded hospitals with alarming speed, racing toward a horizon darkened by economic disaster and chock-full of signs showing more sufferings to come. This global crisis is also an eye-opener for the other global crisis, the slower one with even higher stakes—anthropogenic climate change.

The cure due to coronavirus is temporary and totally unacceptable, whereas the threat from the adverse effects of climate change will remain with us for years, unless we shape up pronto. Nevertheless, coronavirus should make us wonder if lessons learned from the pandemic might be the beginning of a meaningful shift from business-as-usual attitude.

On this International Mother Earth Day, let us pause for a moment and imagine what the Earth would look like when it will be bereft of mirth, when there will be no wilderness and wildlife, when lakes will be filled with sudsy waters, when coastlines will become unrecognisable and when the air will become a witch’s brew. Can our planet still be called Earth? The answer is no, because we do not have the insight to predict the consequences of our frontier mentality and exercise restraint where we must.

I end the piece with the following words of wisdom from the Native American Chief Seattle. “The Earth does not belong to man, man belongs to the Earth. All things are connected like the blood that unites us all. Man did not weave the web of life, he is merely a strand in it. Whatever he does to the web, he does to himself.”

Quamrul Haider is a Professor of Physics at Fordham University, New York.

Economic, Environmental, International, Life as it is, Political, Technical

Donald Trump’s Vicious Blame Game

In an effort to counter allegations of incompetence in handling COVID-19 pandemic, Donald Trump has again resorted to lies, deception and misinformation. This is typical of this administration’s response to any issue of significance.

In early January 2020, when COVID-19 (a strain of coronavirus) was wreaking havoc in Wuhan, China and despite country’s best efforts in locking down the city, the virus did spread to other parts of China as well as to South Korea, Donald Trump blamed China for not tackling the problem efficiently and was bragging in mid-Feb that America was well prepared to face this virus and there was nothing to worry about. He even dismissed coronavirus as nothing more than a common flu infection at the end of February and asked people to have common flu precaution.

Then COVID-19 pandemic attacked New York city from early March with all its viciousness. Thousands of New Yorkers started showing symptoms from early March and the death rate started to climb from early March. Donald Trump blamed the Mayor of New York for not taking adequate precautions in time to tackle the problem! Under relentless pressure from various states, he imposed lockdown from 23 March. But that was probably too late.

Now to deflect the public opinion from his disastrous handling of the pandemic issue, he started blaming China for this virus. He said a few weeks ago that he has evidence that the virus could have originated in a Chinese laboratory, but he declined to give any further evidence. Then Mike Pompeo, the Secretary of State (and sycophant-in-chief), took up the issue and said on Sunday, 3 May 2020 that there was “a significant amount of evidence” that the coronavirus had emerged from a Chinese laboratory. But US intelligence agencies concluded that it was not a man-made virus. A German spy agency (BND) casts doubt on the American accusation that the virus, COVID-19, originated in a Chinese laboratory. In fact, the German intelligence report prepared for the German Defence Minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, concluded that the U.S. accusations were a deliberate attempt to divert public attention away from President Donald Trump’s “own failures”. The five nations’ joint spy agency representing US, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand would not support Pompeo’s claim. Pompeo’s response was typical of a sycophant’s mantra that “whatever the master says, the sycophant says it exaggerated hundred times!”

Doesn’t Pompeo’s present accusation of “a significant amount of evidence” bear a striking resemblance to Colin Powell’s, the then Secretary of State under George W Bush, accusation in March 2003 that “Iraq’s behaviour shows that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction?” Colin Powell started his address at the UN Security Council in Feb 2003 with solemn assertion, “My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions. What we’re giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence”. What a monumental lie and deception! No weapons of mass destruction, no chemical weapon of any description, no links of Saddam Hussein’s government with al-Qaeda etc had ever been found. George W Bush, Colin Powell and their cabal orchestrated lies and deceits to carry out their heinous crime of removing Saddam Hussein and put their hands-on Iraqi oil wealth.

The extreme right-wing administration of Donald Trump is mindful of America’s gradual economic decline and China’s rapid rise to the top position in the world economy. There is a conspiracy theory that is going around now that America considers the only way this trend can be reversed is by decimating China’s economy. How best can it be done other than implanting a vial of coronavirus in the economic powerhouse of China – Wuhan city? This virus would then spread to other towns and cities in China and Chinese economy would be devastated and America would achieve its objectives.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is world-political-map.jpg

But what Trump’s blockheaded strategists failed to appreciate was that the virus could not be confined to China alone; it would savage China as well as other parts of the world. As it happens, within a couple of months, the virus came back to attack America itself and killed already over 80,000 people and rising. This death toll is nearly 16 times higher than China’s, although Chinese population is more than 3.5 times of that of America. So, pro rata America’s fatality is more than 50 times higher than that of China!     

Donald Trump is desperate to start American economy after the lockdown, as election is coming within the next six months. Due to lockdown, more than 25million Americans (over 15% of the workforce) have already become unemployed and many of them may become permanently unemployed. American GDP is likely to shrink by around 15%, which is simply staggering. The death toll from COVID-19 is nearly 2,000 per day and so within another 10 to 12 days, the tally would exceed the 100,000 mark! With such a dire situation, Donald Trump is desperate to shift the blame to China.

If America can make the Chinese crime of making this virus stick, it stands to achieve a number of well-prized objectives all in one go. Firstly, Donald Trump’s awful incompetence and chaotic response to this pandemic will be forgotten by the people due to pent-up anger and the demand for reparation from China. Secondly, the reparation from China can easily be extracted as China has more than trillion-dollar investment in America’s treasury bonds. American government can easily freeze that asset under the excuse of extracting reparation and nothing the Chinese government can do to avert it. Thirdly, Trump election victory would be well assured as he can dish out tens of billions of dollars, snatched from China, to the affected and/or unemployed people. Fourthly, America can flash around the whole world that China is the culprit for this virus, which caused so much pain and suffering to almost every nation of the world. This will irreparably damage China’s standing in the world and economic relations with other nations and thereby secure America’s future prospect as the economic superpower.

All of these favourable outcomes depend on one key issue that China got to be shown that it was the originator of this virus. So, it is highly probable that America will go all-out for it. After all, America is renowned for all sorts lies, deception, vicious propaganda, military adventure and invasion, regime changes, pre-emptive strikes and so forth, all for their selfish interests.

But bitten by the Iraqi debacle and blatant falsehood, American spy agency wanted to clean-up its act and gave an honest verdict that the virus was not man-made. After all, whether the virus containing the embedded gene is naturally evolved or man-made can be found out from the genome sequence data of SARS-CoV-2. Already Gene Laboratories found that SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) and related viruses were not made in a laboratory or engineered.

So, the opportunity for lying and deceiving on this virus is almost non-existent. But the Trump administration, with very limited technical knowledge and the medical knowledge extending to prescribing people to ingest or inhale disinfectants to cure COVID-19 infection, is completely unaware of genetic advances and thought that by doubling up their lies and publicity, they can change day into night!

In the most unlikely event if the virus was man-made, then who is to say that it was not made by America herself and transported to Wuhan? Finding the man-made virus in China does not necessarily mean that it was made in China. Implanting a small amount of infectious virus in a place like Wuhan is a child’s play for American spies. All major powers have chemical, biological and radiological weapons and laboratories to make weapons to attack enemies. Russia killed Sergei Skripal and poisoned his daughter with a Novichok nerve agent in England in 2018 by importing the nerve agent from Moscow. So, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that America would have implanted the virus in China to ensure Donald Trump’s election victory, make ‘America great again’ and destroy China (like Iraq) all in one go! But he should know that China is no Iraq!   

  

  • Dr A Rahman is an author and a columnist.